Estimating FTP from Power Distribution Chart
Your distribution chart looks very suspicious. Power charts in Strava are questionable as well. Your 10/19 ride has you going at 110 watt @ 130 bpm and 145 watt @ 150 bpm (reasonable if somewhat low) but there are many weird spikes to 1000 W with no corresponding acceleration recorded. 10/20 ride has you up to 200-250 W sustained @ 150 bpm (did you recalibrate the power meter between the two rides?) and spikes seem to become wider. E.g. http://app.strava.com/activities/90275451#z565|585 This qualifies as a sprint that should take you at least to 25 mph if not 30 mph and your heart rate up 20+ bpm – yet there’s no uptick in speed or heart rate at all. Here’s another: http://app.strava.com/activities/90484397#z3594|3655
At the same time, I fail to see how those two rides would produce a power distribution chart with a bulge that extends to 360 W.
I would discard the 10/19 ride, as I wasn’t using the powertap on that ride. Strava’s power data is “estimated” and I’ve found it done poorly, so I’ve never paid any attention to it. The spikes imo are meaningless since there was no real power data available.
I used it on my 10/10 ride (http://connect.garmin.com/activity/388469533), and then took the wheel off for a week to get it re-dished. Then I used it yesterday on a city club ride with lots of annoying stops and starts (http://connect.garmin.com/activity/393195685), and finally today I did another solo country ride (http://connect.garmin.com/activity/393735135). The chart combines the 10/10 ride and 10/20 ride data. Here’s a newly updated version with todays ride added into the mix:
I’ll note that the curve has moved backwards slightly, but there’s still a noticeable drop in the same place.
As for the two segments you posted; the first one was a slight uphill (I’m very overweight, and even slight inclines skyrocket my wattage numbers when I’m maintaining pace with my club; one of the reasons for the power meter was to help me quantify my workouts in a way that would help me lose weight and become a stronger rider). The second segment was from today and I was facing some pretty nasty gusting on that road; I imagine I was maintaining cadence when I got hit and it spiked the power.
I can’t rightly explain the steadiness of my heart rate, that’s something that’s been puzzling me for a while now. I had to take most of the summer off due to a back injury but when I got on the bike again in August, my HR would easily spike up to 175 on hills and stay over 160 for tough rides. But over the next 2 months my average HR has been falling steadily and I haven’t been able to get it much past 150 anymore, no matter how hard I push, and my averages tend to be 145 or less. During a ride I’ll look down and typically see it range from 135 if I’m drafting to 145 if I’m pulling, but never anything else anymore.